The Raven and the Jumping Frog

Quoth the Raven, "We're the Underdogs"

Sports writers have spilled more than enough ink writing about the strange coincidence that regardless of which team wins Super Bowl XLVII this weekend, it will be coached by a man named Harbaugh. Instead of dwelling on this piece of sports trivia, we will instead turn our attention to some other strange similarities between the two cities that the competing teams call home.

Both Baltimore and San Francisco are historic seaports due to their prime locations on a natural harbor. Baltimore is just upriver from the Chesapeake Bay in the East while San Francisco is forms one side of the mouth of the eponymous San Francisco Bay. As a result of their proximity to the two largest estuaries in the country, both cities have excellent seafood. The specialty in Baltimore is of course the crab cake while San Francisco is known as the birthplace of cioppino which was created by the large numbers of Italian fishermen who settled in San Francisco during the 19th Century. Speaking of Italians, it is also notable that former Speaker of the House, Nancy Pelosi was born in Baltimore where her father was Mayor but now represents San Francisco in Congress and is the first woman and the first Italian-American to serve as Speaker of the House.

Depending on where you're from, the term "Bay Bridge" may have a different meaning. In California, the San Francisco-Oakland Bay Bridge is infamous for having partially collapsed during game three of the 1989 World Series and is in the process of being replaced to avoid a repeat performance. In the Mid-Atlantic region, the Chesapeake Bay Bridge is equally infamous as a constant source of traffic delays, numerous fatal accidents, and persistent structural problems. Both are suspension bridges and prior to 1964, both bridges carried U.S. Route 50 from sea to shining sea, although today Route 50's western terminus is now in Sacramento. The wise should avoid both bridges during the big game, just to be safe.

In addition to these geographic similarities, the cities are associated two of America's greatest men of letters. Edgar Allan Poe, who has been called the father of detective fiction and the master of the macabre, died in 1849 at the age of 40 under strange circumstances in Baltimore. The Balitmore Ravens are of course named after Poe's most famous poem. In keeping with the pervasive succession of tragedies in Poe's short life, he was paid only $9 for its publication. The year of Poe's death was also the height of the gold rush that gives the "Forty-niners" their name and some 15 years later, a young journalist and jack-of-all-trades named Samuel Clemens moved to San Francisco after having failed as a gold prospector. It was during this time that Clemens wrote a short story titled, "The Celebrated Jumping Frog of Calaveras County" under his pen name, "Mark Twain." This was his first major success and marked the start of a very long and brilliant career.

Despite these many similarities, "The City by the Bay" has always been more appealing in the public imagination than the so-called "Charm City." San Francisco conjures up images of flower-clad hippies, quaint cable cars, and the yeasty aroma of fresh-baked sourdough bread. Meanwhile, the biggest claims to fame for the city of Baltimore are a crime melodrama called "The Wire" and a show about cakes that don't look like cake. Even though it has been nicknamed "Fog City," most outsiders think of San Francisco as a sunny and cheerful place--which is most certainly is not. As Mark Twain famously never said, "The coldest winter I ever spent was a summer in San Francisco." On the other hand, Baltimore's reputation as a gritty post-industrial wasteland is thoroughly well-deserved.

Perhaps this explains the map above. A survey of Facebook users' personal preferences shows that the San Francisco Forty-niners are the clear fan favorite this weekend while the Ravens enjoy only slim support along the Eastern Seaboard. Indeed, the only states which are solidly rooting for the Ravens are Maryland and Delaware. Every other state has at least one county rooting for the 'Niners and in all but a handful, San Francisco fans are in the majority, although most are admittedly of the fair-weather variety. Fortunately the Super Bowl is being held at an indoor stadium this year.

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A Virginian in Ohio

The Prolix Patriot recently relocated from his beloved native Virginia over the mountains to the Buckeye State of Ohio. The map above illustrates a selection of some of homotoponyms as well as a few synotoponyms from the greater Washington D.C. metropolitan area. The list is by no means exhaustive, but at first blush, it seems that Virginia especially has the most names in common with Ohio and this is for good reason. After the Revolutionary War, much of Southern Ohio was settled by soldiers from Virginia, so it is no surprise that they, like the Prolix Patriot, would have chosen familiar place names to remind them of home.

The two states have much in common besides just place names. Both states are also nicknamed "Mother of Presidents." Virginia is the birthplace of no fewer than eight presidents. Meanwhile, Ohio is the birthplace of only seven, but claims an eighth as a native son. William Henry Harrison, who famously served as president for only 30 1/2 days was born in Virginia but also considered Ohio his home state. Ironically, his successor was John Tyler, a Virginian. Despite their reputations, the last president born in Virginia was Woodrow Wilson, born in Staunton in 1856, although he called New Jersey home when elected. The last president born in Ohio was Wilson's successor, Warren G. Harding, born in Blooming Grove in 1865. In more recent times, Virginia has joined Ohio as a pivotal battleground state in national politics. Both Virginia and Ohio are now must-win states for any candidate seeking the presidency.

From an economic standpoint, both Virginia and Ohio have a major industrial and shipping hub (Norfolk on the Chesapeake Bay and Cleveland on Lake Erie), a largely rural agricultural region (Tidewater Virginia and Northwest Ohio), a centrally located state capital with historic industry related to some vice (Tobacco in Richmond and Breweries in Columbus), an historic canal terminus and port located on a major river (Alexandria on the Potomac and Cincinnati on the Ohio), and finally a mountainous area rich in natural resources and wildlife, but generally regarded as the poorer part of the state socio-economically (Appalachian Virginia and Southeastern Ohio).

In some ways, the Prolix Patriot is still right at home.

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The United States of Jim

What's in a name?

While strolling the boardwalk (which, sadly, has since been obliterated by Hurricane Sandy) in Seaside Heights, New Jersey this past August, the Prolix Patriot was discussing an interesting question with his brother-in-law. Namely, what is the most popular given name in each state? Our theory was that in New Jersey, with such a strong Italian population, names like Joseph and Paul might be more popular. However, as the infographic above clearly shows, this is incorrect. In fact, like the rest of the Northeast--and indeed in the country overall--the most common name in New Jersey is John.

Across the Old South--with the exception of Florida--and into some of the Midwestern states, the most popular name is James. It turns out that the popular stereotype of backwoods good ol’ boys named Jim Bob is not without some basis in fact. Also, it may suggest that Jim Beam ought to be the true Southerner’s whiskey of choice, as a preference for Jack Daniels might implicate the drinker as some damn Yankee scalawag. At the very least this confirms the Prolix Patriot’s preference for the former.

Turning to the upper Midwest and the West Coast, the popularity of Michael as a first name is clustered in two regions which oddly, have very little in common from a cultural standpoint. The prevalence of Michael in Wisconsin and Minnesota makes some sense as the Archangel Michael is the patron saint of sailors and the Scandinavians are famous for their maritime heritage. It is less clear how this rationale would apply to the thoroughly land-locked states of Colorado and Nevada however.

Meanwhile, the popularity of Robert is centered in areas typically associated with rugged individualism and self-sufficiency such as the high deserts of the Southwest, the bucolic isolation of Idaho and Wyoming, and the granite mountains and dense forests of New Hampshire and Maine. Suffice it to say, if you’re in a fight, you probably want Bob to have your back. Finally, there is the outlier of the bunch. Although David is only the fifth most popular name nationally, it is the most popular name in Utah and North Dakota. These two states are ironically like the proverbial David against the Goliath of the rest of the country.

The Prolix Patriot does not present a similar map for female names because the result would be trivial. In every one of the 50 states, the most popular female name is either Mary or Maria. However, it is clear that there are regional trends in first names for men. Although in recent years there have been many fads with non-traditional names for both boys and girls, the names we see here are of timeless and enduring popularity so it will be interesting to see whether the map has changed at all several decades from now.

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Are We There Yet?

19th Century Global Positioning System

With the ubiquitous nature of cellphones and global positioning satellites here on earth, we often take it for granted that it is now almost impossible to be truly lost. Short of leaving your cellphone behind and wandering off into an uncharted wilderness, one need only reach into a pocket to gain instant access to incredibly detailed maps and accurate coordinates. However, for the NASA Curiosity rover on Mars, things aren’t so simple:

Curiosity landed facing east-southeast within Gale Crater, with a heading of 112.7 degrees (plus or minus five degrees), and a few degrees of tilt. A Sol 1 overpass by Mars Odyssey will provide additional information on Curiosity's position and additional imagery. A first look at some color images taken just before landing by MSL's Mars Descent Imager also provided additonal [sic] information on the rover's precise location.

There are a handful of man-made satellites in orbit around Mars, but none has the capabilities of the GPS constellation in orbit around earth. Instead, like mariners in the age of sail, NASA scientists must measure the angles between different landmarks in a process known as triangulation to calculate the exact position of the rover.

The next time you’re looking at real-time traffic updates on your phone while searching for an alternate route, consider how lucky you are. Even after a breathtakingly complicated journey between the planets that would not have been possible without the advancements of 21st century rocket science, the incredible machines on the surface of Mars must rely on ancient principles of navigation to get around.

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In Defense of Christopher Columbus

Landing of Columbus by John Vanderlyn from the U.S. Capitol Rotunda

With each passing year, a vocal minority uses Columbus Day as an occasion to clamor for the rebranding of the holiday as “Native American Day,” if not its outright abolition. Aside from cute slogans about colonialism and Columbus’ accidental discovery of the New World, there is little substance to these objections. It is true that Columbus did not prove the earth was round and he was not the first person to set foot in America. However, for good or for ill, Columbus’ voyages changed the course of history.

The principal objection is that Columbus symbolizes a legacy of genocide and brutality that we should not celebrate. However, the Europeans were no worse than the native peoples. In particular, the early Spanish explorers documented with horror the practices of human sacrifice and cannibalism by the Aztecs and other indigenous cultures. If roles were reversed and the Aztecs had discovered Europe instead of the other way around, the clash of civilizations would have been just as brutal and bloody.

Alternatively, the tired cliché of our time is that Christopher Columbus did not discover America because there were people already here. However, just because a thing is seen does not mean it is understood. Before Benjamin Franklin’s famous kite experiment, people knew that lightning existed, but they did not understand its significance. In the same way, the native peoples of the Americas did not realize that they inhabited a continent in a larger world until Columbus made contact in 1492.

That said, one could reasonably argue that the credit should go to Leif Ericson, who set foot on Newfoundland around the year 1000. However, Ericson was illiterate, and the only accounts of his voyage that survive were passed down by oral tradition for several centuries before being written down, by which time the only Norse settlement in North America had long since been abandoned. In contrast, Columbus was an expert navigator who kept detailed accounts of his voyages so that others could follow his route.

As a result, Columbus is just as important to the history of America as the first Thanksgiving. There are hundreds of towns, cities, mountains, rivers, roads, parks, museums, schools, monuments, statues, and sports teams—and even the ill-fated Space Shuttle Columbia—all dedicated to the memory of the man who truly discovered the American continent. We can lament that the early European explorers did not share our modern cultural sensibilities and candidly admit to Columbus’ personal failings, but as Americans, we cannot condemn Columbus’ achievement without condemning our entire existence.

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How Big Is $1.5 Trillion?

Marinus van Reymerswaele, "Two Tax Collectors"

With talks on raising the debt limit grinding along in Washington, D.C., it's worth considering just how big the problem really is.  President Obama and the Democrats have been pushing tax increases as a solution to the nation's budget woes, but don't think for a moment that such increases will only affect the super rich.  When the tax man comes around, we're all going to pay the price for the government's profligacy.

According to the Congressional Budget Office, the estimated 2011 U.S. federal budget deficit is $1,480 billion dollars.  But what does that really mean?  Comparing this number to data from the International Monetary Fund, the U.S. federal deficit is roughly the same as the Gross Domestic Product of the following countries and regions:

• Canada - $1,574 billion

• India - $1,537 billion

• Russia - $1,465 billion

• Spanish-speaking South America (i.e., except Brazil) - $1,443 billion

• Spain - $1,409 billion

• Australia and New Zealand combined - $1,375 billion

• All of Africa, minus South Africa - $1,357 billion

Consider this when evaluating President Obama's claim that we can solve the nation's fiscal problems if we simply close some tax loopholes for "millionaires." Unless we make major cuts to spending--including entitlements--the scale of the problem is so immense that we are all going to have to bear some of the burden.

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Metro Keeps Opening Doors

Earlier in these pages, we compared DC's proposed streetcar network and existing Metro system to the original DC Transit, circa 1958 when the system was at its zenith.

Today, prompted by a conversation with the author of the Blog of the Courtier, we endeavor to show how mass transit is a critical ingredient for population density.  Using the same streetcar map and comparing it to the 2010 census population data for each of the 180-odd census tracts within the District, we can see an almost uncanny conincidence betweena areas of high density and the original streetcar network.

Prior to the 1960's, there were few bridges across the Anacostia river, so large parts of far Southeast were never served by streetcars.  However, at the same time, large areas of Northeast D.C. which are not served by Metro had extensive streetcar service.

Intuitively, it makes sense that density conincides with streetcars.  Proponents of bus service argue that routes can be changed easily to accomodate changing trends and population shifts--indeed, Metro has a page dedicated to bus route changes, but this is exactly why bus lines do not promote density.  Metro can decide on a whim to reroute the bus line that used to take you straight to your office.

On the other hand, a streetcar or subway line cannot be moved very easily, so developers and residents have confidence that they will continue to have regular transit service.  Even after more than 50 years, the only areas of higher density that have emerged in the district are the pockets in far Southeast that are now served by Metro.

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One State, Two State, Red State, Blue State

As armchair quarterbacks anaylze the aftermath of the 2010 election, potential presidential challengers are quietly gearing up for the 2012 cycle.  With sweeping Republican gains in statehouses across the country, the 2010 census apportionment is likely to give a slight edge to the GOP in congressional races, but more interesting are the demographic shifts which will benefit the Republican presidential nominee.

The map above shows the states which went to Obama and McCain in the 2008 presidential election, but with a twist.  Instead of varying the shading by the depth of partisan support, the darkness of each state instead corresponds to the predicted changes in the electoral college.  Meanwhile, several states are also shaded to indicate a potential weakness for the opposing party to pick up electoral votes in the 2012 cycle.

Dozens of states shifted perceptibly to the right in 2010, especially in the midwest.  Even President Obama's home state of Illinois, while still solid blue, is less so.  Mark Kirk won the Senate race there and the state legislature is slightly less lopsided in favor of Democrats than it was.  Also, like many liberal bastions, Illinois will be losing an electoral vote after the 2010 census reapportionment.

Republicans completely swept the 2010 election by winning races for governor, both houses of the state legislature, and a majority of the congressional delegation in seven states that went to Obama in 2008: Florida, Indiana, Michigan, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia, and Wisconsin.  Meanwhile, Republicans also now control at least one house of the state legislatures in Colorado, Iowa, Maine, Minnesota, New Hampshire, and North Carolina.

Democrats can take some consolation that during redistricting they will at least have some leverage in Arkansas, Kentucky, Mississippi, and West Virginia.  However, with the exception of West Virginia, none of these states are seriously in play for 2012--unless Hillary Clinton mounts a successful renegade primary challenge to her current boss.

Numerous factors, such as gerrymandered minority districts, weak turnout in an off-year, and the potential for improvement in the economy make it hard to draw strong conclusions from 2010 about the upcoming presidential race.  2012 will still be a very difficult year for Republicans, especially because there is no clear favorite with the widespread appeal that will be necessary to convince independents who voted for Obama to change their vote this time around.

However, Obama's political team should have reason to worry that no less than 117 electoral votes will be at stake in the seven states that slipped away from the Democrats in a complete rout this past cycle.  Adding other traditional battlegrounds like Colorado, Iowa, and New Hampshire into the mix presents a daunting race to the 270 electoral votes that will be needed to keep President Obama from joining the 15 million Americans currently on the unemployment rolls.

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Colonization: An Alternative History

What if we lived in an alternate universe in which the United States colonized Britain? The map below shows real place names in England and Wales, but labeled as if they were named after their American counterparts, instead of vice-versa.

If you have any other suggestions, add them in the comments!

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